But the size of the heavy rocket – it is 53.6 meters (176 feet) tall and weighs 837,500 kilograms (over 1.8 million pounds) – and the risky design of its launch process have led experts to fear that some debris from its central stage might not be consumed upon re-entering the Earth’s atmosphere.
As with the two previous launches, the rocket lost its empty 23-tonne first stage in orbit, meaning it will continue to loop Earth over the next few days as it gradually nears landing. This flight path is difficult to predict due to fluctuations in the atmosphere caused by changes in solar activity.
Although experts consider the chances of debris hitting a populated area to be very low, many also believe China is taking an unnecessary risk. After the center stage of the latest launch fell into the Indian Ocean, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said China ‘failed to meet responsible standards for its space debris’, including minimizing risks during the start of the school year and by being transparent about operations.
China rejects accusations of irresponsibility. In response to concerns over last year’s launch, China’s foreign ministry said the likelihood of damage was “extremely low”.
Ahead of the launch, Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Center for Astrophysics who closely follows space launches, wrote on Twitter that he had hoped China would have adopted a new design to allow the core stage to be actively desorbed.
Late Sunday, McDowell added that US Space Command orbital data for two launch objects confirmed that the core stage “remains in orbit and has not been actively de-orbited.”
Many scientists agree with China that the chances of debris causing serious damage are minimal. A paper published in the journal Nature Astronomy this month estimated that under current launch practices, someone would die or be injured by parts of a rocket making an uncontrolled reentry at 1 in 10 during the next decade.
But many think launch designs like Long March 5B are an unnecessary risk. “Launch vendors today have access to technologies and mission designs that could eliminate the need for most uncontrolled re-entries,” the authors wrote. They proposed global safety standards mandating controlled re-entry.
Although it lags behind the United States in many ways, China’s spaceflight program has won many symbolic victories over the past decade as part of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s plan to make nation a space power, including placing the Tiangong space station into orbit last year.
The successful docking of the Wentian Experience Module on Monday means its orbital outpost is just one addition away from completion, with the final module due to launch later this year. There are three Chinese astronauts on the station.
The rapid increase in space activity has raised fears of an emerging space race – and the risk of a damaging and geopolitically destabilizing accident caused by poor communication between nations. Cooperation between China and the United States in space has been minimal since the 2011 Wolf Amendment that banned NASA from using public funds to work with the Chinese government.
The prospect of international collaboration has been further undermined by China’s growing partnership with Russia, which Beijing says remains strong despite President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Last year, the two announced plans to jointly build a research outpost on the moon.