OLast weekend, Russia signed an agreement with Ukraine to allow grain exports to resume from three Ukrainian ports, easing the global food crisis. Before the ink dried, Russian forces fired precision missiles at the port of Odessa as the grain was prepared for export.
This is clearly the behavior of a tyrannical despot, someone whose word cannot be trusted. But it can also be an act of desperation: Richard Moore, the head of MI6, told a US security conference last week that the Russian military was on the verge of “running out of steam”.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has approached the conflict as if it were a World War II tank battle – and, unsurprisingly, his 20th-century tactics don’t stand up to 21st-century weaponry. But we know from Russia’s Syria playbook that when the conventional doesn’t work, Putin is quick to turn to the unconventional. In Syria, that meant attacking hospitals and schools, denying aid and, ultimately, using chemical weapons. In Ukraine, another Russian war crime is about to happen in plain sight, even after the grain deal: the militarization of food and fuel. If we allow this to happen, it is not such a big step towards chemical, biological or nuclear war, which Russia has already threatened.
The militarization of food has already driven up prices for those who can least afford it in Africa and Asia, putting millions at risk of starvation. The grain deal, brokered by NATO member Turkey, should allow Ukrainian food to reach those countries, but any guarantee of safety for the ships carrying it – particularly in the wake of the Russian attack on Odessa this weekend – should be taken with a pinch of caution. salt.
As soon as these ships enter international waters off Odessa, they must be protected by NATO fighter planes. The Russian Air Force has proven to be no match for aging Ukrainian jets, and it will be even less for NATO’s state-of-the-art jets. The deal also involves the lifting of some sanctions against Russia, allowing it to generate huge revenue by selling its own grain and fertilizer on world markets. This will, of course, allow Putin to rebuild his beleaguered army.
The Ukraine crisis is also one of the factors responsible for creating runaway inflation in the UK and elsewhere, contributing to the cost of living crisis. Helping Ukraine defeat Russia is the fastest way to get economies back on track. If that means putting boots on the ground, ships in the sea or planes in the air, then so be it, if that ensures that Putin’s war crimes in Ukraine do not equally affect those most in need in the world. Many war crimes are being committed in Ukraine by Russian forces and, as the UN seems powerless or unwilling to act, NATO must do so.
In Ukraine, as in Syria, Putin doesn’t seem to care about collateral damage or the rules of war and seems to favor direct targeting of civilians as the quickest way to achieve a strategic victory. Unfortunately for him, the Ukrainian people have shown they have the stomach for this fight – NATO must match their bravery and support them to the end. We cannot forget that our failure to act in Syria, when up to 1,500 civilians were killed with the nerve agent sarin, undoubtedly encouraged Putin to invade Ukraine.
Putin is losing in all aspects and on all fronts in this war, and we must help Ukraine to victory at all costs. The events of the past weekend confirm – if further confirmation were needed – that Putin cannot be trusted. To ensure much-needed food reaches those who need it most, NATO must get directly involved in protecting its passage through the Black Sea.