It’s that time of year when players will be on the move. Even with their recent six-game winning streak, the Cubs stand at a dreadful 40-58. That .408 winning percentage gives them some breathing room to avoid the Cubs’ worst record of all time, but they’re still likely to flirt with a 100-game losing streak when all is said and done. This is a team in sell mode and trade rumors fuel the content. Today I’m here with my tips and tricks on how not to be fooled by false rumors and commercial announcements.
Blue check marks
This first one is so basic, but it’s really an easy mistake to make. Beware of Ken Rosenthel, Jeff Passsan and any other Twitter accounts riffing on a generally famous and trusted account that reports MLB news. There will be dozens, if not hundreds, of internet trolls looking to have a little fun trading our favorite players for ridiculous deals. They will go to the trouble of creating their account, uploading the same avatar as the most famous personality and even copying their biography. Sometimes they use graphics that mimic Twitter’s blue tick, so it’s hard to just take a look and be sure.
There are still ways to outsmart these scammers.
Check subscriber accounts before getting too invested in a rumor or individual feedback. The real Ken Rosenthal has 1.3 million followers and he posts a lot of bow ties in his media. It is unlikely that a fraudulent account will be able to accomplish this in the short term. Finally, never forget that sometimes the most important accounts get hacked, so beware of that as well. Who among us could forget Jeff Passan crypto day?
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Not All Rumors Are Created Equal—Inside Sources Matter
One of the things I always try to keep in mind when looking at a trade rumor is the genesis of the article. Who started the rumour? Do they have an incentive to start it? Can you identify them even a little?
There’s a big difference between “MLB executives believe” and “Cubs front office source said.” The former could be rival executives speculating, or even trying to motivate the Cubs into a particular deal. The latter is internal information from a person affiliated with the team who speaks without identifying himself. “Player X should be available…” could literally mean that someone like me spent a day on Spotrac watching when contracts expire and team records, putting two and two together, and figuring out that Team X could move all the guys that maybe weren’t. next season or the one after.
It’s worth being skeptical and remembering that journalists benefit from engaging content. They have a built-in incentive to make their rumor mill as solid as possible. If they use language like “should be available”, you should give them the credit they deserve.
Offers are often announced after the deadline
In 2019, I was finally ahead of the curve. I had my trade deadline piece ready to go, I was dropping info as it happened. I was flying through analysis and feedback. The words flowed. I was ready to inflame the Cubs for not making a big move with the division on the line. My play went live within five minutes of the trade deadline ending and I started with this:
Despite all the talk of a sense of urgency, this team has seemed to lack urgency at key times this year. The rush seemed like a 50-50 bet at best, a matter of luck. Will Bats spawn in a Grand Round? Who knows? Will the bullpen be able to hold a one-point lead behind? Maybe, maybe not. You don’t have a clear reconciliation for most of the start of the season? Keep piloting Pedro Strop or Steve Cishek until signing Kimbrel no longer costs a draft pick. It’s not like eight missed saves can make a difference in baseball’s tightest division in September.
And for that last group of people, I’m giving you the Cubs at the trade deadline, where they decided to go big or go home by turning replacement receiver Martín Maldonado into Tony Kemp, while also acquiring LOOGY Derek Holland for money considerations and right-handed bullpen arm David Phelps for a minor league arm.
It’s generous to call it tinkering on the fringe, but let’s take a closer look at what the Cubs acquired in 32-year-old Phelps and 27-year-old utility Kemp. You can read more about the deal with Holland here.
Within 15 minutes the Cubs announced the Nick Castellanos trade and I had to tweet this:
It pays to wait 30 minutes after the trading deadline to be sure that trades are closed.
Prospect lists vary – a lot
Here at BCB, we’re lucky to have Josh Timmers covering minors so we know what’s going on with Cubs prospects on the farm. It does a great job of covering the ins and outs and going beyond the simple paragraph write-ups you can find for potential watchers all over the league.
It is very tempting during the trade deadline to bypass this and do your own research. Look, I’m a former debate coach. I’m all for doing your own research. However, an essential part of your own research is knowing your sources well. One of the reasons scouting can be so difficult and time consuming is that scouting requires a lot of knowledge and time. Also, not all prospect lists make the same assumptions.
For example, Baseball America ranked the Cubs’ farm system 15th heading into the 2022 season, FanGraphs’ pre-draft rankings had the Cubs ranked sixth. There is almost a third of the championship between these two classifications, how could they be so different?
Well, there are lots of reasons. Some MiLB rankings use a methodology that favors proximity to the majors. Others look at raw talent in the system without worrying about when prospects arrive. You can have a really solid farming system, but if all your prospects are in Low A, the Next Great Cubs team is still a long way off.
Don’t just copy the most optimistic or pessimistic reading of the prospects returned for your favorite players. Read them all. Read between the lines. More importantly, look at the methodology used in these rankings. Also, remember that baseball prospects are human beings who will face many challenges as they make their way to the majors, and prospects are not promises.
Breathe
Yes really.
In 2016, I was hanging out with my grandma for her birthday as the biggest Cubs trade deadline of my life was heading our way. One of the many fakes Ken Rosenthal posted that the Cubs traded Kyle Schwarber for Aroldis Chapman. I didn’t realize it was a fake account and blurted out a few words no one should ever say around their 85 year old young grandmother. Luckily for me, it was my swearing as a sailor grandmother who took it all in stride, as opposed to my conservative Catholic grandmother who certainly would have felt compelled to say some novenas for my soul if the situation had been reversed.
The 2021 trade deadline was long. I found it painful in the same way that bad breakups had been in the past. I don’t think this year will be better. But when the dust settles after Aug. 2 and I figure out which team I go to with Willson Contreras for the rest of the season, baseball will still be baseball. The Cubs will still play in the biggest ballpark on the planet, and the ivy will still be brown on opening day and bright green in June. They won’t lose forever.
Feel your emotions, get upset and vent here if you need to, get excited about the prospects if that’s your thing, but remember we all fade in our own way. In the end, there are many, many things more important than baseball.