Things are not improving. (A screenshot from an American Airlines video) A screenshot from an American Airlines video
Have you been thinking a lot about the future lately?
Have you made any plans — other than deciding to quit your job, that is?
Wouldn’t it be wonderful to fly away somewhere with your loved ones, lie on a beach and forget the last two years?
There is, however, a small obstacle: the airlines. You cannot be sure what they will do, if they will get you to your destination or when they will get you there. Or if they ever will.
You can’t be sure they will still have staff shortages which will lead to flight shortages which will lead to temperament shortages.
So I carefully analyze the public pronouncements of top US airline executives to discern just how bad — or, bless them, good — the future of airlines is at present.
Let’s first look at United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby. His airline is reducing the number of flights it offers. He says it’s because United want to ‘do better for the customer’.
A charming thought, this one. You would think United could have had the idea earlier.
But anyway, when will things get better?
Well, Kirby seemed pretty clear. He said CNBC“We are not going to return to normal use and normal staffing levels until next summer.”
It’s quite simple. If you’re already planning your summer vacation next year, United says things will get back to normal. Although my distant memories of normal suggest that summer flying still offers a gravel-eating experience with chopsticks.
Now let’s look at the predictions of American Airlines.
Its CEO, Robert Isom, looked into his custom first-class crystal ball and still saw many dark clouds.
He agreed it would take a year before the airline’s larger planes were flying normally again. However, he added: “I think it depends on the aircraft manufacturers’ supply chains and ultimately the pilots’ supply to get everything in sync.”
It’s hard when you have to rely on others, isn’t it? But then he inserted a little more darkness.
“From a regional perspective, it will just take a little longer than that,” he said. “Maybe two or three years, to kind of get the pilot supply chain back to where we need it.”
A little bit longer ? Three times as many years as United say things will return to normal?
Airlines have canceled flights and closed routes from smaller US cities. But the mere idea that it will take Americans three years to get back to serving customers properly may prevent them from making any plans at all.
Perhaps Isom should be commended for his realism, even if one laments how poorly his airline and others are currently run.
Perhaps United’s Kirby was also just focusing on his airline’s core services. Or maybe he thinks United are just in better shape than American. American pilots would certainly agree with that.
It’s easy to suspect that none of the CEOs has a clear idea of what’s going to happen. They offer numbers that have no necessary relation to the pleasure to come.
All US airlines have demonstrated over the past year that their planning skills are deplorable. They took government money. They grabbed whatever passenger revenue they could when they knew they didn’t have the staff to operate the flights they sold.
Yet Kirby is still trying to instill fear to increase sales: “Unfortunately there will be even fewer seats available throughout the system as the infrastructure around aviation cannot support it. You should probably book early for Christmas. We’re going to fly less in order to ensure reliability.”
Book now to avoid disappointment? What a pity.
We can all blame the system. It always seems a little harder to blame yourself.